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Six Months Ago: The Nomar Trade

Monday, January 31, 2005

I can't believe I almost missed it. Six months ago today, all Cubdom was ecstatic. Jim Hendry, deity, had just pulled off a tremendous trade to bring Nomar Garciaparra to town.

Six months later, Jim Hendry, deity, just pulled off a... umm... trade to get rid of Sammy Sosa.

Unfortunately, I can't put the tremendous label on this trade. Moreover, if the figures and personnel who are rumored to be a part of this trade are correct, I think the label 'craptacularly bad' might be a bit more apt.

Anyhow, with a winter's worth of depression setting in on an incredibly stressed out student who just wants to experience sunshine again... I'm taking the easy way out and re-running the majority of what I wrote that beautiful July day when Nomar came to Chicago.

There is a bit more to the original post if you want to check it out.

Posted by Byron at 9:51 PM | | |

Clarification and Rebuttal: Dubois

Sunday, January 30, 2005

Hot diggity! Did I blaspheme?

First, I went back and carefully reread what I wrote about Dubois because the comments in part seemed to disagree with me, while agreeing with the point I wanted to make. I REALLY REALLY REALLY like the rumored Huff trade. I want the Huff trade.

Secondly, of course I want to win this year. The reason I want to keep Dubois is I think he can help us win this year... and the next five. I am high on Dubois because I believe (blindly or stupidly maybe) that Dubois can translate his impressive minor league performances into a solid Major League outfielder. The real theme of my last post should have been: I would rather have Huff starting over Dubois, I would rather have Dubois starting over Hairston, and I think an outfield with only Hairston, Hollandsworth, Patterson, and Dubois will not be enough to win this year.

If I were 'Dusty Hendry', I would try to have my opening day outfield include Dubois, Patterson, and Huff. Give me this outfield, and I'll show you a Central Division Championship Banner.

OK, time for some rebuttal: The knock against Dusty Baker is that he is too loyal to his precious veterans... yet I suggest we try to give a starting spot to a deserving rookie and I get lombasted in the comments and on other folk's blogs.

People complain that the Cubs organization doesn't pay enough attention to OBP. I mention that a guy could easily put up a higher OBP than two other guys and I get run through by a long shiny spike.

We quibble about a million too much for Corey Patterson, overpaying Blanco, Perez, half the bullpen, etc... and yet I point out a three to four year cost advantage of using a young prospect and I get accused of being cheap.

Finally, there is the issue of patience and our 'window of good pitching.' I'll start my mentioning that I have been a die-hard Cubs fan since I moved to the Chicagoland area in 1989. I have 15 years invested in this team and I have seen the whole range of finishes. Two division championships, a wild-card bid, a few late season pushes that fell short, a few late season collapses, several midseason collapses, and some truly horrible teams. I also know that impatience gets your team a Matt Karchner, not a championship.

As for the pitching window, it is at least two years wide at this point. With the depth of pitching in our minor league system, I don't worry about the mound as much of the rest of the field. Furthermore, except in the context of defense, the success of the pitching staff is largely independent of the outfield situation.

My choice of the Marlins as a team I didn't want to resemble was a poor choice. Yes, they have won two championships and thats great for them. But, What I want is a run like the Braves, the Yankees, or even the late '90s Indians. The Cubs are developing a core of young talent to enable this. However, if we are too afraid to use our homegrown talent, we won't be able to afford the big free-agent when we need one.

The 1990's Yankees are an excellent example of a team which was able to field a team with a good mix of free agents and youth. The 2005 Yankees are an excellent example of a team with no youth. The $200 million price tag is probably just a bit out of the realistic range for the Cubs.

Building from within is the only way we will be able to afford Prior, Zambrano, Wood, Ramirez, Garciaparra, and Patterson when they come back up for contract renewals.

Blast Away

Posted by Byron at 5:33 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack | | |

In Defense of Jason Dubois

Saturday, January 29, 2005

The Sammy Sosa trade hasn't been finalized, and so I am going to wait to express my (dis)pleasure until the final details come out. However, with the likely inclusion of Jerry Hairston Jr. and the rumored subsequent trade for Aubrey Huff, I wanted to take this opportunity to defend Jason Dubois.

You see, in quite a few of the scenarios that I see playing out, Dubois could end up on the short end of this trade. Unless the Cubs want another ticked off player, Hairston won't be playing much second base as long as Todd Walker is healthy. This leaves Hairston in one of the corner outfield spots, most likely in a tri-ploon situation with Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois.

Of course, this is a bad situation. The Cubs need another bat and have several options. One of those options would be to sign Magglio Ordonez, but since the Tigers have reportedly offered him $55 million over 5 years, it doesn't look too likely. A second option would be Jeromy Burnitz. I've been reading for two years about the Cubs desire to acquire Burnitz, and have consistently maintained that adding Burnitz to the roster would be the equivalent of bringing in Candy Maldonado. So, lets nix idea number two before we even consider it... too late I guess.

Which leaves us with option #3, Aubrey Huff. This idea seems to be a reasonably great idea. Trade the minor league proceeds of the Sosa trade along with a few Cubs prospects to the Devil Rays for Aubrey Huff. Now, I like this idea... but as usual, the Devil is in the details .

If the Cubs bring in Huff, or another established Major Leaguer, while retaining Jerry Hairston Jr. (JHJ), that leaves Jason Dubois (according to this month's vineline, it is pronounced Jason Du-Boyce) out of the mix for a starting position.

To see why this is a bad idea? Lets turn to the statistics. Courtesy of The Baseball Cube

Next there is Aubrey Huff, stats courtesy of ESPN

And finally, Jerry Hairston Jr. stats courtesy of ESPN

What do we have here? Three guys, all capable of playing a corner outfield position. One of them, JHJ is a utility player who feels most at home at second base. He is 28 with about 5 years of service time and will make $1.8 million in 2005. The next, Aubrey Huff is also 28 and is under contract for the next two years. He will make $4.75 million in 2005 and $6.75 million in 2006. Finally, there is Dubois. Jason is 26, has 20 games of Major League experience and will earn whatever the Cubs decide to pay him for the next 3 years, followed by another 3 years of arbitration eligibility. At this point, Dubois is Cubs property until after the 2011 season. He will likely earn the league minimum in '05, which is around $300,000.

So Dubois is two years younger and six times cheaper than JHJ... and he is 15.8 times cheaper than Huff.

Now money doesn't matter unless you are talking about players of similar caliber, and I think we are. While Dubois' numbers are from minor league action, I think he will be able to maintain a .360 OBP and a .500 SLG. Huff's career numbers are a .350 OBP and a .490 SLG, while Hairston comes in with a .340/.370 breakdown. Moreover, Hairston's speed isn't all that significant. He has stolen 94 bases while being caught 39 times in his career (about 1 SB every 5.6 games). His 70% success rate is decent, but nothing to write home about.

The point of this post is to make Cubs fans stop and think for a second before willy-nilly deciding the other guy is better than our own home grown talent. Sure, Dubois is a rookie and will go through some difficult periods. He probably wouldn't equal the production of Huff this year, and might not match Hairston, but we can have him for six years on the cheap, and possibly get a great ballplayer out of this.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that it would be a real shame if one of the byproducts of the Sosa trade is that Dubois lost his chance to play for the Cubs for the next several years. However the outfield plays out this offseason, I just want to be assured that C-Pat and Dubois are penciled into the starting lineup on a regular basis.

Posted by Byron at 1:36 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack | | |

Sammy So-Gone!

Miss Fantastick alerted me via email that Sammy Sosa has (almost) been traded... to the Orioles.

The details are still leaking out, but it includes Jerry Hairston Jr. and a few minor leaguers. I am going to hold off on any analysis until after I find out who is actually involved, how much money is changing hands, and whether this trade actually comes off.

The ESPN story.

Posted by Byron at 12:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

Handedness

Friday, January 28, 2005

I was reading Baseball Musings and saw this very interesting article on the lack of left handed latin American players.

The Baseball Musings article was in response to articles in Sabernomics, which by the way is being added to the list at left.
Opening Day Without A Mexican
Where are the Latin Lefties?

Read them all... What are you doing here... go read the articles.

Posted by Byron at 10:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

Markie Franchise

Some more analysis through charts. Today's subject: Mark "The Franchise" Prior.

The first thing I notice looking at this chart is the shorter lines for 2002 and 2004. Prior is in his third season as a starter, but has failed to remain perfectly healthy in any of the three. His first start was May 22, 2002 and he started 19 more before being shut down for the season on August 31 with a strained left hamstring.

In 2003, he collided with Marcus Giles and was out of commission from July 11 through August 5. Whats suprising though, is even after taking a month off in the middle of the season, he still started 30 games in 2003.

In 2004, we all remember the achilles tendon injury and the daily Prior updates. He returned in early June and pitched for the rest of the season.

Tracking his ERA across the three seasons shows a fair amount of in-season fluctuation in all three years. However, unlike Zambrano who has an upward sloping ERA towards the end of all three seasons, Prior appears to be a strong beginner and finisher, but his seasonal ERA has peaked towards the middle of each season.

Take a glance at the axis labels on this chart! Off the wall. I started the minimum at 8.5 K/9. Essentially, Prior has gone his entire career striking out at least one batter per inning, and often times a few extra during the game.

Aside from 2002 where Prior started off by striking out an astronomic number of hitters, he has been rather consistent throughout his three seasons. My guess is that Prior was getting several K's in his first few starts from batters who had never seen him, or video of his pitching. After the batters adjusted, and he re-adjusted he settled pretty consistently into his normal 10.5 K/9 IP.

This chart is troubling. Prior walked about 1.75 batters more per nine innings in 2004 than he did in 2003. In fact, Prior's 2004 chart is nearly identical to his 2002 line, until about the 12th start. After the 12th start, 2002 Mark Prior virtually stopped walking guys while the 2004 Mark Prior took 16 starts before he noticably improved his control.

Even more interesting, the 2003 Prior showed the same in-season progression as 2002 and 2004, but about a walk and a half lower. However, with two of the three seasons showing dangerously high levels of walks, I would suggest Mark move down the bench a couple of seats and sit nearer to Greg Maddux than Kerry Wood.

The WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched) lines for each three years are eerily similar. Again, Prior started all three seasons well, struggled a bit during the middle of the season and finished strong. His 2002 and 2004 seasons began almost identically, and the 2002 and 2003 seasons were similar in the way they ended. The worrisome issue of course is that Prior's 2004 season ended with a quarter of a man extra on base per inning than in 2002 and 2003.

Taken together, the four charts show us the same thing we already knew intuitively. Mark Prior has a ton of potential and looked like he was realizing it late in 2002 and throughout 2003. However, during the 2004 season, Prior struggled and looked much more pedestrian than a guy with the nickname: "The Franchise."

All that said, I told Miss Fantastick last week that I thought Prior had a great shot at winning the Cy Young award this year... if Carlos "Cy" Zambrano doesn't beat him to it.

Posted by Byron at 3:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

Cy Zambrano

Thursday, January 27, 2005

I am so tired of Sammy Sosa rumors, I could... (this from the guy who dreamed up 28 trade scenarios... yeah, I know I'm part of the problem.)

Anyhow, with pitchers and catchers drinking their last off-season YooHoo's, its time to start reviewing some personnel profiles. For those of you breathlessly awaiting the final installment of my Cubs Convention reporting, I'll probably get to it this weekend.

In the mean time, I'll post some charts of Carlos Zambrano's rate stats over the past three years.

Zambrano's ERA progression over the past three years is impressive and indicates a pretty good career path at this point. Even in his first season as a starter (Zambrano started 16 in 2002) he had an ERA below 4.00. In each season he has lowered that ERA and has been consistent throughout the year (i.e. not a great start and lousy finish or vice versa).

Again, Z's strikeouts per nine ratio is also indicative of good things. Although it declined in 2003, he lifted it nearly a full K/9 in 2004. Furthermore, Zambrano's ratio is so high that quibbling over a half point isn't worth your time.

Like the other rate stats, the K/BB shows improvment each year. Carlos is improving his control.

And finally, a quick peak at WHIP reveals the same steady progression over his three years as a starter.

Posted by Byron at 9:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

Cubs Convention 2005: Unique Memorabilia

Wednesday, January 26, 2005

On Friday of the convention, I went strolling through the exhibition halls full of Cubs memorabilia. Of course, there was your standard fare, but there were also some truly unique pieces of memorabilia available for sale. So, I snapped some photos and took some notes, and now I present them here for your enjoyment.

Item #1: The coolest thing I saw at the convention?

Of course the Pelicans jersey wasn't for sale, but the display case was. Yeah, I know it looks like a Cardinals jersey, but I still think its awesome. The vendor selling the display case had a good selection of cases, most for baseballs. His store is called Lakeside Sports and he is located in Apple Valley, MN (952)-270-5591. If you call him up, ask him to give me that jersey!

Item #2: Some incredibly beautiful large format Cubs images.

This is a picture of the Prior photograph that was on display. I talked to the gentleman running this booth and he explained that he had started taking photos at games as a hobby. After several friends told him he was really good, he applied to the MLBPA (players association) to get a license to sell the images. After a year, he got the paperwork cleared up and now travels around the bigs taking pictures and selling them. He currently does it part-time. You can find his website at: www.baseballphotos.com.

The images are taken with a digital camera and printed out using an Epson printer. It is unbelievable how clear and bright these photos are. Oh yeah, the prices were listed as: $85 for a 13x19 photo, and $125 for a 17x22.

Item #3: A bat and base chair.

This chair has a base for its seat, and bats for its legs. Aside from looking really cool, I thought it would be a bit more comfortable than your standard stool... but I didn't have enough courage to ask the guy if I could sit on it.

Although I chose the stool to feature, the booth was mainly selling some excellent Cubs photography. Check them out at www.willbyington.com

Item #4: Cubs mural type paintings.

Melanie Moore, an artist from Chicago had several paintings on display. The one pictured above is a mural-type painting of fans and goings-on at Wrigley Field. I'm certainly no art critic, but I wouldn't have minded having one of these hang on my wall. This website is her 'virtual gallery'.

Item #5: An awesome Ryno Montage

This montage of the greatest second baseman to ever play was done by an artist named John Hanley. Check out his website: www.johnhanleyartist.com. As for price, I couldn't believe the $100 'Cubs Convention Special Price.' When you consider a jersey will run you $120 or so, I would have plunked down the money for this picture if I weren't an impoverished college student.

Item #6: Ryne Sandberg, Andre Dawson Throwback Jerseys, and 1992 All-Star Game Flag

The booth where these jerseys were for sale said their website was www.thebestofyesterday.com, but there is no site. Still, thats probably my favorite Ryno jersey, so although its not terribly unique, its still unique. Confused? Moving on...

Item #7: Chicago Cubs Bath Mat

I think the point of this photo is: Anything with a Cubs logo on it will sell. The bath mat is available at www.fascollectibles.com.

Item #8: Chicago Cubs Pez Dispenser

Again... anything with a Cubs logo will sell. This lovely Cubs Pez dispenser, and a foot-and-a-half porcelain Cubby bear are brought to you by David and Dads Sportscards Memorabilia out of Glencoe, IL. 847-835-1120.

Item #9: Chicago Cubs Magnets

Sorry, no picture, but I seriously thought about buying one of these. The company, www.premiermagnets.com, takes photos and sticks them on magnets. Its pretty cool, and they had a huge selection of Cubs stuff at the convention.

Item #10: Wrigley Field, the unauthorized biography

Again, no picture, but its a book. This book was written by a fellow named Stuart Shea and might be worth a look-see. He has a website at www.wrigleybook.com.

Posted by Byron at 1:59 AM | | |

Cubs Convention 2005: Pictorial

Monday, January 24, 2005

Warning: This post has lots of pictures and may take a while to load.

I traveled north to Chicago this past weekend with the intent of being a 'Cub Reporter' for the weekend... but the weekend didn't start all that well.

On Thursday night, I spent the evening at my parents with the intent of finishing up my Cubs convention memories. When I tried to dial up their ISP, I couldn't get online. My father had apparently decided to change providers and get DSL... only I needed an internet connection this weekend. So, the Cub Reporter in me took a hit.

FRIDAY

On Friday, I drove over to the Hilton in Chicago and got there about 2:40 p.m. I snapped this self-portrait to record the fact that I was quite happy to be at the Cubs convention.

I waited in line with several hundred folks to get a grab bag full of goodies from last year, but by the time I got within earshot of the front table, the grab bags were gone. I didn't feel any great loss as they were $20. With the grab bags gone, I went touring the exhibition halls full of Cubs memorabilia. Baseball cards, jerseys, posters, pictures, shot glasses, you name it. Plaster a Cubs logo on it, mark it up 250% and sell it at the Cubs Convention. Anyhow, tomorrow's post will be all about some of the more unique items I saw while shopping around.

Towards the end of my walk around the exhibition halls, I spotted my first ball-player. Sammy was standing in one of the shops, looking a bit lonely.

The post-it note says 'Take a picture with me $2, buy me $30.' When I went looking for sales on Sunday, Sammy was still standing out there.

So after running into Sammy, I started back upstairs for the opening ceremonies. On the way, I walked by Gary Pressy, the Cubs organist who was busily making music for the fans.

I got up to the Grand Ballroom about thirty minutes before the opening ceremonies started, but the place was already packed. My rookie status as an opening ceremony attendee became evident when the ceremony started. I had taken a spot right at the front , but beneath the balcony on the side of the room. When everyone was announced, they all walked above my head and I couldn't see anything.

Anyhow, I'm getting ahead of myself. While waiting for the ceremony to start, Jim Hendry came strolling by on his cell phone, and I snapped this shot of his back.

After the opening ceremonies, I decided to wait in one line all weekend. I was looking to kill some time when, to my great amazement, the line to take a picture with Andre Dawson was rather short. So, I got in line to take a picture with my favorite Cubs right fielder. Unfortunately, the digital camera I was using didn't do so well on the resolution, but here I am with 'The Hawk.'

I finished the night up with a little Cubs B-I-N-G-O which was incredibly dumb, and with thousands of people playing, I didn't stand much of a chance of winning.

I left Cubs Bingo a little early and wandered over to the WGN Sports Central show they were broadcasting live. Unfortunately, while trying to get plastic bingo chips to line up in a row, I had missed the Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker interviews.

Furthering the disappointment, Ryno didn't show up for his segment, and I left 10 minutes early to make sure I beat the rush out the door.

At this point, I got to drive home through a driving snow-storm on unpaved highways at about 30 MPH.

SATURDAY

As convention attendees know, the real action happens on Saturday. I was especially excited to see Jim Hendry's session and ask a few questions. However, I hit the snooze button on the alarm clock and slept in.

Adding insult to injury, I got on the road about 8:15 for the convention (which started at 9:00 a.m.) and it took me 20 minutes to get five miles north. During that time, my car started sliding every which way on the still unpaved roads. When WGN informed me that travel times would be about four times as long as typical, and that all 6 lanes of I-65 were blocked due to an accident in the north-bound lane and emergency vehicles in the south-bound lane... I took the hint... stopped for a cup of hot-chocolate and returned home.

It was Saturday of the convention. I was supposed to meet several members of the Cubs Blog Army for lunch, and I was stuck at home. &%^*.

I ended up doing accounting homework. &%^*.

SUNDAY

I got up quite early on Sunday determined as heck that I would make it to the convention. The roads were better except for a five mile stretch of I-94 where traffic slowed to about 25 MPH.

I still got to the convention on time and sat in on the Cubs operations management panel.

The panel included John McDonough, the Cubs VP of marketing, Frank Maloney the director of ticket operations and Mark McGuire, the VP of business operations.

The presentation began with a quick slide show of some drawings and plans for Wrigley Field. I had seen most of these drawings at one point in the Tribune. Then there were questions and answers. I asked a few questions, but that post will come later this week.

After the operations panel, I waited around for the 'Down on the Farm' panel MC'ed by a very hoarse Dave Otto. This panel included Jason Dubois, Jon Leicester, Oneri Fleita (farm system director), and John Stockstill (scouting director). Most of the questions were directed at Fleita and Stockstill who were both impressive in my opinion. Fleita appears to have a very firm grasp on what is going on in the farm system.

Again, I asked some questions, but that will be covered later this week. After these two sessions, the organized events for the convention were over. I went strolling through the exhibition halls looking for good sales, but didn't find anything that picqued my interest for the $5 I had left in my pocket.

Posted by Byron at 5:57 PM | | |

Technical Difficulties

Saturday, January 22, 2005

My permahome email connection disappeared unbeknownst to me, and I won't be able to post til Monday evening.

I am at the Cubs Convention and will give you all the scoop when I get back to an internet connection that doesn't require a long-distance phone call.

Posted by Byron at 1:55 AM | | |

Cubs Convention Remembrances - Part Two

Thursday, January 20, 2005

The Cubs Convention starts this Friday, and I will be attending for the first time in several years. As best I can remember, I think this will be my fifth convention.

What follows is the second in a four part series of my personal Cubs Convention recollections.

I attended my second Cubs convention in 1996. For me, this convention marked a high point in Cubs optimism. I was fourteen, the great strike of 1994 had finally finished, and the Cubs had played most of a season in 1995. Then, on October 31, 1995 Ryno made an announcement that he would be coming back to play in 1996. The announcement came days before my birthday, and days before tickets went on sale.

So, with my childhood idol coming back to play I was excited about the convention. I don't remember too much about the other things we did that year (I know we ate lunch at a hot-dog stand about three blocks from the Hilton, and it was bitterly cold outside.) However, what I remember crystal clear was the question and answer session with Ryno.

Since I'm no wallflower, I was about third in the line to ask Ryno questions, and I'd cooked up a good one. I had read his 'autobiography' and he had made some rather nasty remarks about how Sammy Sosa had received preferential treatment. And so when I got up to the mic, I said...

Mister Sandberg, I read your book, "The Second Coming..."

At this point in time the room erupted in laughter and I had no idea why, so I finished the question. "If you had problems with Sammy before you retired, are those problems going to continue being an issue? What has changed to make you decide to come back?"

I told you I had cooked up a good one, since most of the other kids were asking dumb questions like whats your favorite... ? Still, I might have lost a bit of credibility referring to Sandberg's 'second coming' rather than the real title of his book "Second to Home."

This evening: Cubs Convention Remembrances - Part Three: The Cubs windbreaker.

Posted by Byron at 7:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

Cubs Convention Remembrances - Part One

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

The Cubs Convention starts this Friday, and I will be attending for the first time in several years. As best I can remember, I think this will be my fifth convention.

What follows is the first in a four part series of my personal Cubs Convention recollections.

My first convention was in 1992... at least I think it was (I had to look back at baseballreference.com and match up players I remembered at the convention with the roster). My brother's best friend at the time was named Paul. Paul's step-dad was a cool Dad and took him to ball games, Cubs conventions, and the like. On a few occasions my older brother and I tagged along to a few games (including an old-timers game that I really enjoyed.)

Anyhow in 1992, Paul's step-dad couldn't make it to the convention so he gave the tickets to my family and I went on Sunday with my Dad. We rode the train (the SouthShore Line) into Chicago and wandered around the Hilton all day. On the return trip, we took the train back and I remember being extremely excited for awhile, and then falling asleep from exhaustion. My Dad took a picture of me on the train putting my newly acquired baseball cards into a binder, and that picture still hangs on their wall today. (I might try to scan it in later and share the love.) It includes one little kid smiling with about as wide a gap tooth grin as you can get.

In 1992, I would have just turned ten and was enthralled by the amount of memorabilia available at the convention. Prior to this trip, I just figured souvenirs included hats, pennants, uniforms, and those Dairy Queen ice cream batters helmets. Boy was I wrong.

Unlike later conventions, I made my Dad alternate between standing in long autograph lines and milling about the hundreds of vendor booths while I drooled over ever trinket for sale. One of my purchases was a complete team set of 1991 fleer baseball cards. After that, we stood in more autograph lines and I got signatures on the cards from Paul Assenmacher, Les Lancaster, and Chico Walker.

I also bought a baseball, which I subsequently had signed by Assenmacher. I still have the ball from that convention.

That year, I also got to see Ryne Sandberg and Rick Sutcliffe at the convention. Since these were two of my favorite players, I was thrilled. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to secure either of their autographs.

Although my first trip to the convention was only a day long, and I don't remember a ton, I have some very fond memories. As an impressionable young kid, that trip to the Hilton in Chicago went a long way to making me a life-long True Blue Cubs fan.

Tomorrow: Cubs Convention Remembrances - Part Two: The Second Coming of Ryne Sandberg.

Posted by Byron at 9:52 PM | | |

MoneyBall: Buddy Ball

Monday, January 17, 2005

Bud Selig bought the Brewers in 1970 for about $11 million. Last Thursday, he got the final authorization from MLB, to sell the team to Mark Attanasio for $223 million. The Brewers had been valued at $174 million by Forbes magazine going into 2004.

George Steinbrenner bought the Yankees in 1973 for about $10 million. Forbes Magazine valued the Yankees at $832 million before the 2004 season.

Bud's annualized rate of return? 13.4%

The Boss's annualized rate of return? (Assuming he sold the franchise for Forbes' estimate) 23.4%

For several reasons, Selig's sale of the Brewers is a rather momentous occasion for baseball. Primarily, it marks the end of one of the highest profile conflicts of interest in American business. As commissioner, Selig has oft been accused of making decisions that would benefit his team unfairly. Wrongly or rightly (in the case of contraction, I believe rightly), the appearance of impropriety has undermined the commish... if not among his fellow owners, then among fans.

Another reason this sale is important is that Selig is Baseball's longest tenured owner. He bought the team 35 years ago and has managed to turn it into one of the worst franchises in the game. Furthermore, he has developed an 'old boys club' of owners who are loyal to him, and have helped him push such 'great ideas' as the 1994 strike and contraction. As I see it, removing Selig from ownership is a positive step for MLB... now lets see if we can't get rid of Carl Pohlad (Twins), Vincent Naimoli (Devil Rays), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox), Peter Angelos (Orioles), Jeffrey Loria (Marlins), Carl Lindner (Reds), and of course Major League Baseball (Expos/Nationals).

And finally, perhaps the reason this is most momentous? Well, Selig is the first owner to take advantage of the tax depreciation law change that supposedly boosted every club's resale value by 5%. In November, I wrote:

Not only was I wrong, I was also naive. And here I thought the tax law change had been lobbied for in order to benefit all the clubs (which it may). Maybe, but this change likely put about $11 million extra in Bud's pocket. So now, I'm wondering whether Bud's work on the tax law was for himself or for the good of the game?

This sort of question is a perfect example of how Bud's dual role as commissioner and owner create potential conflicts of interest. So now, hopefully I won't have to write anymore about decisions in the commissioner's office being biased towards one team or another... until of course the Nationals budget gets cut again.

Interesting fact: If Forbes is to be believed, all thirty baseball teams have a value of $8.83 billion (yahoo!finance shows The Williams Company with an $8.82 B market cap.)

Posted by Byron at 4:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

MoneyBall: Data Dump

Sunday, January 16, 2005

Today's post is a data dump and is presented (nearly) without comment.

All Major League Baseball Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

One of these is not like the other... one of these does not belong.

OK, OK, I know you can't see anything with all thirty teams together so we'll do it by division. The charts below are almost exactly proportional to each other, so you can compare the six below.

American League Eastern Division Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

American League Central Division Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

American League Western Division Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

National League Eastern Division Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

National League Central Division Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

National League Western Division Forbes Franchise Values 2000 - 2004

Posted by Byron at 11:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

MoneyBall

Saturday, January 15, 2005

I'm working on an article about Bud Selig's sale of the Brewers to Mark Attanasio for $223 million... but it won't be done until Monday probably, and the site's looking a bit stale. So I have some suggested reading for you all to prepare for Monday's column. (School is already taking its toll.)

• Article detailing sale of Brewers - ESPN.com
• 2001 MLB Franchise Values - Forbes
• 2002 MLB Franchise Values - Forbes
• 2003 MLB Franchise Values - Forbes
• 2004 MLB Franchise Values - Forbes
• Excite.com Buzz List, Check out #5... special thanks to Miss Fantastik at When is Next Year?

Posted by Byron at 10:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |

Mariotti puts down the doughnut to...

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Credit goes to Andy Dolan's Desipio Media Ventures for the headline. He often links to Mariotti's articles in the above manner.

Frankly, the headline for this entry should be: The Pilfered Post. Not only is the headline a rip off, but so is the reason I wrote what I did.

While I did write the rambling text below, I wrote it in response to Joe Aiello's opinion solicitation at View From the Bleachers... which asked readers to opine about Mariotti's latest column. (The Cliff's note version of this entry was originally a comment responding to Joe's post.)

So, Mariotti's column assumes the Cubs want to get rid of Sosa at all costs. But, what if you modify that assumption? Lets try: "The Cubs would like to move Sosa, but not if that deal requires them to receive significantly less return value and/or take on millions of additional dollars."

Now, I think Mariotti's article looks a little petty.

The Cubs haven't moved Sosa because the other team would need to take on $35 million for a fading, one-dimensional slugger. (The option year of his contract automatically vests if traded.)

In order for the Cubs to trade Sosa, they will have to take on $35 million of bad contract or they could keep him and possibly get a pissed off home run hitting Sammy for only $21.5 million ($17 million in 2005 plus a $4.5 million buyout in 2006).

So as Jim Hendry sees it, he can pay $21.5 million he doesn't want to, or $35 million he doesn't want to. Furthermore, if he chooses the $35 million option he may get significantly less output from the players he receives (think Todd Hundley trade, only with the Cubs getting the short end of the stick instead of a division title.)

Frankly, Sammy has got a better potential upside for next year than any of the players that I have seen mentioned in the rumors, and I applaud Hendry for refusing to make a knee jerk decision, potentially wasting Cubs dollars (and an opportunity to win) in the process.

Finally, something that is even more scarce than wins is starting position player slots. Trading Sosa for a player with a bad, long term, contract who will be around for several more years (read: Mike Cameron or Cliff Floyd) will hurt the team's ability to compete for more years than keeping Sosa will.

Personally? I would like to see the Sosa for Todd Helton trade. Sign Magglio Ordonez, and trade D-Lee for a closer.

Yes, I realize the last two paragraphs could be viewed as contradictory... but I think Helton's high OBP is what the Cubs need, and thats not going anywhere... I think

Posted by Byron at 12:49 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack | | |

203

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

I went bowling tonight.

Never did that before!

Posted by Byron at 10:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack | | |