"At the end of the day, boys, you don't tell me how rough the water is, you bring in the ship." – Steve Stone
A Goat Riders Affiliate
Go Cubs!

Wrigley Rooftop Directory
Ryne Sandberg Fan Page
The Cubdom Photo Gallery
The Cubs Prayer
Cubs Calendar
Jim Hendry Page
Cubs Ownership History
Baseball Business Essays
TheCubdom Hall of Cubs


Recent Blog Updates

Editor's Pick:

Goat Riders of the Apocalypse
Bleed Cubbie Blue
Desipio Media Ventures
Hire Jim Essian!
Cub Reporter
Ivy Chat
Cub Town
Ghost of Paul Noce
The Cubdom
Thunder Matt's Saloon
View From the Bleachers
Cubby-Blue
WGN-TV Baseball Blog

Honorable Mention:

A Hundred Next Years
A League of Her Own
Agony and Ivy
Bad News Cubs
Baseball Diamond News
Boys of Spring
Bush League Times
Chicago Cubs Baseball
Chicago Cubs Blog
Chicago Cubs Online
Church of Baseball
Clark & Addison blog
College of Idiots
Cubs f/x
Cubs Hot Stove
Cubs Hub
CubsNet.com
Cubs Obsession
Five Outs to go
Gonfalon Cubs
Kosuke Fukodome
Lollygaggers
Out of Right Field
The Cubs Brickyard
The Other Fifteen
The Ted Lilly Fan Club
Temporary Bleachers
TheCubsfan.com
Wrigleyville23

Newbies:

Cubbie Nation
Holy Cow Bell
Ivy Envy
Towel Drills
Turning Two
Wasting away in Wrigleyville

Soldiering On:

Die-hard Cubs Fun
Fire Dusty Baker
Northside Lounge
Peoria Northsider Report
Yarbage Cub Review

Cubs Sites:

Desipio Boards
North Side Baseball
Cubscast.com
Inside the Ivy
The Heckler
My Wrigleyville

Just Read 'em!

Baseball Analysts
Baseball Musings
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Think Factory
Hardball Times

Conglomerates

Baseball Toaster
Most Valuable Network
SportsBlog Nation

NL Central

Brew Crew Ball MIL
Bucs Dugout PIT
Crawfish Boxes HOU
Get Up Baby STL
Honest Wagner PIT
Red Hot Mama CIN
Red Reporter CIN
Viva El Birdos STL

NL East

Amazin Avenue NYM
Citizens Blog PHI
Federal Baseball WAS
Fish Stripes FLA
The Good Phight PHI
Sabernomics ATL

NL West

6-4-2 LAD, LAA
AZ Snake Pit AZ
Dodger Thoughts LAD
Ducksnorts SD
Gas Lamp Ball SD
McCovey Chronicles SF
Only Baseball Matters SF
Purple Row COL

AL East

Batters Box TOR
Bronx Banter NYY
Camden Chat BAL
DRays Bay TB
Futility Infielder NYY
Joy of Sox BOS
Over the Monster BOS
Pinstripe Alley NYY
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog NYY

AL Central

Aaron's Baseball Blog MIN
Bless You Boys DET
Let's Go Tribe CLE
Royals Review KC
South Side Sox CHW
Sox Machine CHW
Tiger Blog DET
Twins Geek MIN

AL West

Athletics Nation OAK
Halo's Heaven LAA
Lone Star Ball TEX
Lookout Landing SEA
USS Mariner SEA

Miscellany

Beyond the Boxscore
Minor League Ball

Chicago Sports

Blog-A-Bull
Section 8 Fire
Windy City Gridiron Bears

News Sources

Chicagosports.com
Cubs.com
MLB.com
Sun-Times Cubs
Daily Herald Sports
Daily Southtown Sports
BaseballReference.com

Beyond the Ivy - A Cubs Rooftop Partner

Mariotti puts down the doughnut to...

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Credit goes to Andy Dolan's Desipio Media Ventures for the headline. He often links to Mariotti's articles in the above manner.

Frankly, the headline for this entry should be: The Pilfered Post. Not only is the headline a rip off, but so is the reason I wrote what I did.

While I did write the rambling text below, I wrote it in response to Joe Aiello's opinion solicitation at View From the Bleachers... which asked readers to opine about Mariotti's latest column. (The Cliff's note version of this entry was originally a comment responding to Joe's post.)

Excerpt from: Suddenly, Cubs can't live without Sosa
By Jay Mariotti, Chicago Sun-Times, Jan 11, 2005

It's hard to dump diapers, toxic waste and used-car batteries. But never, ever did I think the Cubs couldn't dump Sammy Sosa. They continue to try doggedly, only four weeks before pitchers and catchers report in Arizona, but chances are much better of the players inviting The Evil Stoney to their first Scottsdale drinking session.

This is an abject failure for Andy MacPhail and Jim Hendry, who couldn't scrub and polish the grime and pawn Sosa to the dumbest sucker available. Of course, if they hadn't made a monstrous public episode of his quit fit on the final day of the season and slapped him with an $87,400 fine, they wouldn't have had such difficulty answering the most common question in trade talks: Why is Sammy such a shammy?

How sad -- and symbolic of Sosa's demise -- that not one major-league team has been willing to gamble he'll stay healthy, avoid controversy and hit 40 home runs.

...

There was a time when I thought they'd be better off cutting him loose -- even at the $21.5 million walkaway price -- rather than retaining his pouting, sneezing, boom-boxing, swinging-and-missing puss in 2005. But that was contingent on the Tribune Co. noticing what the Boston Red Sox did last season, spending well over $100 million of their bloated baseball profits and chasing a quality hitter or two who would cushion Sosa's departure. Unless you're counting Henry Blanco, your backup catcher, the Cubs haven't acquired anyone.

So, Mariotti's column assumes the Cubs want to get rid of Sosa at all costs. But, what if you modify that assumption? Lets try: "The Cubs would like to move Sosa, but not if that deal requires them to receive significantly less return value and/or take on millions of additional dollars."

Now, I think Mariotti's article looks a little petty.

The Cubs haven't moved Sosa because the other team would need to take on $35 million for a fading, one-dimensional slugger. (The option year of his contract automatically vests if traded.)

In order for the Cubs to trade Sosa, they will have to take on $35 million of bad contract or they could keep him and possibly get a pissed off home run hitting Sammy for only $21.5 million ($17 million in 2005 plus a $4.5 million buyout in 2006).

So as Jim Hendry sees it, he can pay $21.5 million he doesn't want to, or $35 million he doesn't want to. Furthermore, if he chooses the $35 million option he may get significantly less output from the players he receives (think Todd Hundley trade, only with the Cubs getting the short end of the stick instead of a division title.)

Frankly, Sammy has got a better potential upside for next year than any of the players that I have seen mentioned in the rumors, and I applaud Hendry for refusing to make a knee jerk decision, potentially wasting Cubs dollars (and an opportunity to win) in the process.

Finally, something that is even more scarce than wins is starting position player slots. Trading Sosa for a player with a bad, long term, contract who will be around for several more years (read: Mike Cameron or Cliff Floyd) will hurt the team's ability to compete for more years than keeping Sosa will.

Personally? I would like to see the Sosa for Todd Helton trade. Sign Magglio Ordonez, and trade D-Lee for a closer.

Yes, I realize the last two paragraphs could be viewed as contradictory... but I think Helton's high OBP is what the Cubs need, and thats not going anywhere... I think

Posted by Byron at January 13, 2005 12:49 AM | Bookmark and Share | BallHype: hype it up!
Subscribe to The Cubdom - get emails with the latest Cubs info and pictures

This post has been tagged:

5 Comments

It'd be nice to have Helton instead of Sosa. Hey Sammy, think of all the homers you'd hit in Coors Field!!

Don't think that's about to happen though. But we can dream.

We're stuck with SamMe in my opinion. Hopefully he'll hit 40 HR's and only strike out 150 times this year.

Oh, but ya gotta Ban The Jambox this year. It'll show the team that the Team comes first.

Your numbers are way off wrong. The MLBPA has already agreed to let Sosa renegotiate the 2006 portion of his contract, so $35mm is not the amount the Cubs would have to absorb. As any team can negotiate this part of teh contract, any acquiring team will be on the hook for 2006 and beyond. The Cubs will be free of any 2006 payroll for Sosa.

Additionally, $21.5mm is wrong as Sosa earns $17mm in 2005, plus a $4.5mm contract buyout if his 2006 optin is declined, plus $3.5mm "farewell" payment on the day his contract is conluded (either at the end of 2005 or 2006).

The max the Cubs are in for in 2005 is 17+4.5+3.5, or $25 million. They won't take a penny more in cost beyond that.

One more thing. You're nuts if you want Helton. It's not him the player that's the problem, it's his contract.

From ESPN.com:

2005: $12.6 million
2006: $16.6 million
2007: $16.6 million
2008: $16.6 million
2009: $16.6 million
2010: $16.6 million
2011: $19.1 million
2012 (team option): $23 million/$4.6 million buyout

You're on the hook for $119.3 million for seven years, and that includes only $4.6mm in 2012. That's Beltran money for a guy who doesn't play a premium defensive position, doesn't run, and has had back problems.

Chuck, I think you are right with regards to post #2, I had forgotten about the farewell payment. And worse, I was just lazy and used Mariotti's numbers.

As for the Helton trade, I knew the contract and if you click on the link at the bottom of this comment, you'll see that I spent entirely too much time discussing how the money in that swap would work out.

As for whether the Cubs would really be better with Helton, I'm not sure it is an awfully big committment, but I love Todd Helton. Great glove, good power, great OBP... and yes those are his away stats (in the link.)

http://www.thecubdom.com/archives/2004/12/sammystock_2004_3.html

OK, links don't work. copy and paste, or the link is in the article.

I saw how you worked out the cash. Still not smart to pay premium dollars for a non-premium position for a guy with a history of injury.

Leave a comment


AddThis Feed Button

Get The Cubdom email updates


Search

Google
Web
TheCubdom.com

eXTReMe Tracker
Since Mar 18, 2004

Recent Entries


Monthly Archives



Cubs Sale Articles

© 2004 – 2012 Cubdom LLC
legal - about thecubdom.com - site index