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SammyStock 2004! Day Four

Monday, December 20, 2004

Hey Hey, Cubs Fans! Welcome to SammyStock 2004! Where legitimacy isn't the concern... its just rumors, free, casual rumors, with whoever happens to be in the majors.

We've got a lot of great suitors out there, so lets get Rumor mongering! Yeah!

Lets Give it up for...

... The Rockies

There may be no other team in baseball which Sammy would like to be traded to more than the Rockies. The thought of playing 81 games a year at Coors field probably gives Sammy the shivers.

Over the past three years, Sammy has hit .378 with a .425 OBP while visiting Coors. His slugging percentage is a ridiculous .865, and his OPS is 1.290. He has hit five home runs in his last 37 at-bats in Denver. If that is too small of a sample size for you, his career numbers aren't that much different.

In 186 career at-bats at Coors, Sammy is averaging .349 with a .425 OBP, a .758 SLG, and a 1.183 OPS. Sammy just loves Colorado, when you add in Sammy's 53 at-bats at Mile-High, he has hit 25 home runs in 239 AB (9.56 AB/HR, its 8.86 AB/HR in Coors).

OK, to recap, Sammy likes Coors, the Cubs don't like Sammy, so it sounds like we've got a pretty good fit. Who? Todd Helton, thats who.

Although the talent is not exactly a match, Helton is still in his prime while Sosa appears well through his, Helton's larger than enormous contract gives the Rockies plenty of reasons to send him on his way. The payment schedule?

  • 2005: $12.6 million
  • 2006: $16.6 million
  • 2007: $16.6 million
  • 2008: $16.6 million
  • 2009: $16.6 million
  • 2010: $16.6 million
  • 2011: $19.1 million
  • 2012: $4.6 million buyout, or $23 million
  • Total: $119.3 million guaranteed.

If Sammy gets traded, his contract ensures him payouts of...

  • 2005: $17 million
  • 2006: $18 million
  • Severance Package of: $3.5 million
  • Total: $38.5 million

If the Cubs don't trade him the 2006 year becomes an option of $4.5 million or the $18 million. As far as I can tell, Sammy gets the $3.5 no matter what. So, if the Cubs hold on to him, they owe him a total of $25 million, and Sammy doesn't get $13.5 million.

So, with all the numbers on the table, the deal should be this. I believe if Helton were on the market today, he would get a six year deal at $13 million per year, or $78 million. Sammy would probably earn about $9 million for the next two years, meaning the Rockies are bringing $41.3 million of excess salary to the table, while the Cubs have $20.5 million in excess salary.

The Cash flows should look like this...

  • 2005: Cubs pay Rockies $.4 M + $8 M = $8.4 million.
  • 2006: Cubs pay Rockies -$3.3 M + $9 M + $3.5 M = $9.2 million.
  • 2007: Rockies pay Cubs $3.3 M
  • 2008: Rockies pay Cubs $3.3 M
  • 2009: Rockies pay Cubs $3.3 M
  • 2010: Rockies pay Cubs $3.3 M
  • 2011: Rockies pay Cubs $9.55 M
  • 2012: Rockies pay Cubs $4.6 M
  • Total: Rockies pay Cubs $9.55 M.

This effectively leaves the team that signed the player to the bad contract to pay the excess salary the player is owed, while the team getting the player pays the player what they would be worth on the market today. In other words, the Rockies would pay Sammy $18 million over the next two years (his fair market value) and the Cubs would cover the rest ($20.5 million.) For Helton, because his deal runs longer than he would get on the market today, the Rockies pay the excess value of the contract for the first six years, and then split the seventh year equally with the Cubs.

Now, I realize that this deal would take the Cubs out of the running for Beltran, but frankly, I'd rather have Helton.

Comparison of Todd Helton (Away) with Carlos Beltran
Todd Helton (Away) .298.394.526.92020.636.5
Carlos Beltran.284.353.490.84423.75.4

Both are obviously fantastic hitters, but I would clearly select Helton. Although he has a few extra years in his prime to help his numbers, all those statistics are on the road, and most players hit better at home, even if home is not Coors field.

So the deal? Sosa for Helton as described above, which has the tradeoffs of not getting Beltran, but also not having to deal with Scott Boras. I'd take the deal in a second... if it were offered.

... The Diamondbacks

The deal that sends Sammy to the D-Backs is there for the taking. Its a three way deal with the Yanks, and Diamondbacks, and it occurs as soon as Shawn Green invokes his no-trade clause. Sammy goes to the Diamondbacks. They send "The Big-Unit" to the Yankees. The Yanks then send Javier Vasquez to the Cubs with a sack of cash. Vasquez will earn $10.5, $11.5, and $12.5 million in '05, '06, and '07 respectively. So the Cubs would probably want at least $5 million for taking Vasquez.

... The Giants

Brian Sabean wants desperately to win a World Series with Barry Bonds. He loves the old, washed up, over-paid, veterans... and having Sammy hit behind Barry might just get them over the top.

However, the problem is that the Giants are trying to win now, just like the Cubs and neither team is looking to part ways with quality veterans who can help a team win now. Still, this is Sammy we are talking about, Sammy Sosa! So, the deal is this: Sammy, Kyle Farnsworth, and Mark Prior to the Giants in return for Jason Schmidt, Matt Herges, and a Per Diem for Wendell Kim to drive Dusty's dog across country to Chicago. Oh, and a little of that flax-seed cream you have out there... Dude, that stuff really works.

... The Dodgers

Sammy for Shawn green when Green decides he doesn't want to play for the D-Backs.

Sorry for the cop-out on those last few teams. I get off work in 10 minutes, and drive home after that. I may update in a day or so when I come up with when my sources get back to me.

OK, thats the NL West. Day Four, whenever it happens, will cover Jim Hendry's talks with the NL Central teams.

SammyStock 2004! Day One - AL West.
SammyStock 2004! Day Two - AL Central.
SammyStock 2004! Day Three - AL East.

Posted by Byron at December 20, 2004 1:39 PM | Bookmark and Share | BallHype: hype it up!
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Interesting Helton deal. While Helton may have put up better hitting numbers in his career, I would take Beltran over Helton anytime. Beltran has a lot of speed, while Helton doesn't. Helton has a bad back that will probably only get worse as he ages. Helton plays first base, which is already covered with Lee. Beltran plays the outfield, which is sorely missing a left fielder. Beltran is only going to get better while Helton is close to (or already started to) decline.

I know you're just having fun with trade scenarios, but I don't see how you can succesfully argue wanting Helton over Beltran.

Keep the trade thoughts coming though, maybe Hendry will get some ideas.

THEY AREN'T SENDING PRIOR ANYWHERE!! NO WAY! I WON'T ALLOW IT! You can send them Dubois and Farnsworth with Sammy, just don't screw up the rotation, it's the only thing holding the team at the moment.

Prior is a Cub. Yeah, we all know that. Just wanted to restate that.

I dig your call of the three way trade with the Yankees and the Diamondbacks. Let's write that tract up right now.

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