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Runs in Retrospect

Monday, July 26, 2004

Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Holy Cow!

It sure is nice to run up the white and blue 'W' flag. Tonight's game was on WCIU, and I was taking an exam and then working, so I haven't gotten to see any of the game or highlights. But, the Cubs won 3-1 over Milwaukee, finally getting Matt Clement enough run support to give him a victory. (Not that 3 runs, all of which came after Clement threw his last pitch... is all that much.)

I did see that there was a Derrek Lee home run, and that Mark Grudzielanek went 3 for 4 with 2 RBI, but I want to watch the game later so I'm not digging in too deep to the boxscore.

Tonight's post is one that has been in the works for a few days now. I wanted to look at the Cubs offensive output for signs of a trend, or consistency. What I came up with is not profound, or anything that a half way conscious Cubs fan couldn't tell you... the Cubs have been Wildly Inconsistent.

First, the pictures.

Cubs 2004 Offensive Production 10 Game moving average

This is a graph of the Cubs average runs scored for the previous 10 games. (i.e. the average runs scored for games #5-15 are the data point for game #15.)

Cubs 2004 Runs allowed 10 Game moving average

This is a graph of the Cubs average runs allowed for the previous 10 games. (i.e. the average runs allowed for games #5-15 are the data point for game #15.)

Cubs 2004 Runs allowed vs. scored 10 Game moving average

This graph lays the previous two graphs on top of each other for comparison.

2004 Cubs Winning Percentage vs. Pythagorean Predicted winning percentage

This final graph shows the Cubs predicted winning percentage, using the Pythagorean standings vs the Cubs' actual winning percentage.

Now, The Numbers: as of July 26,2004 after the game.

  • Cubs Runs Scored: 456
  • Cubs Runs Allowed: 384

  • Avg Runs Scored Per Game: 4.61
  • Avg Runs Allowed per game: 3.88

  • Max Runs Scored In a Game: 13 (one time)
  • Max Runs Allowed In a Game: 13 (one time)

  • Min Runs Scored in a game: 0 (9 times)
  • Min Runs Allowed in a game: 0 (3 times)

  • Median Runs Scored per game: 4
  • Median Runs Allowed per game: 3

  • Runs Scored per game Mode: 4 (16 occurences)
  • Runs Allowed Per Game Mode: 1 (20 occurences!)

  • Standard Deviation Runs Scored per Game: 3.23 (70% of average)
  • Standard Deviation Runs Allowed per Game: 2.86 (73% of average)

  • Cubs Actual Winning Percentage: .535
  • Cubs Pythagorean Winning Percentage: .585
Posted by Byron at July 26, 2004 11:27 PM | Bookmark and Share | BallHype: hype it up!
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