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Lineup Analysis

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

The Cubs are playing the Reds as I post this. I'm at work and have the gameday up on one screen while blogging on the second. Although I had to be here to babysit the lab at 2:00, I did get to see the first inning on ESPN and what I saw was typical of the Cubs season. They get two outs, load the bases, and then an out, scoring 0 runs. Now, the Cubs have done this two outs bases loaded bit (sometimes even scoring runs) numberous times this year... and I have also been saying that the Cubs need a #2 hitter... so here are the Cubs stats so far this year, broken down by batting order position.

#1 .277 .336 .459 .795 14 60 43 57
#2 .244 .305 .371 .676 9 50 32 70
#3 .244 .314 .472 .786 22 53 50 87
#4 .333 .390 .580 .970 23 74 67 54
#5 .269 .324 .478 .802 14 51 57 61
#6 .326 .398 .599 .997 20 53 62 76
#7 .288 .337 .450 .786 10 38 41 65
#8 .242 .302 .351 .653 4 22 36 61
#9 .179 .205 .253 .458 4 22 19 100

Splits as of July 20th, from ESPN.com Cubs Splits.

Keying on two statistics (OBP and SLG), we see the Cubs failure to get sufficient production from the #2 (and #3) spot. With an OBP of .305 in the second hole, the Cubs are tacking on an extra out right before bringing up their power hitters.

Lineup Suggestion: Our current lineup has really been struggling to put up some runs, so I'll suggest this lineup.

#1: Todd Walker .363 - OBP in the leadoff over Grudz' .309
#2: C. Pat .334 OBP - speed at the top is nice
#3: D. Lee .371 OBP, .535 SLG - sorry Sammy... best hitter hits #3.
#4: Aramis Ramirez .371 OBP, .551 SLG - umm I mean best hitter hits #4.
#5: Moises Alou .339 OBP, .527 SLG - Mr. Clutch will have more men on
#6: Sammy Sosa .356 OBP, .538 SLG - With baserunners comes more fastballs
#7: Michael Barrett .342 OBP, .493 SLG - will see those RBI climb
#8: Alex Gonzalez .252 OBP, .390 SLG - strikes out too much for #8, oh well.
#9: Starting Pitchers

I don't want to ramble on and on about the lineup, I typically leave that up to Dusty, but I do want to point out some probabilities.

The probability of three batters with OBP of .336, .305, and .314, (the current performance levels) getting out in order is: 31.66%, and the probability of getting them all on base safely is 3.22%.

However, if the batters' OBP are .363, .334, and .371 (the suggested lineup) the probability of all three getting out in order falls 5% to 26.68% and the probability of getting all three on base is 4.50%.

Consequently, the first lineup has a 68.34% chance of getting at least one man on base while the second lineup has a 73.32% chance of getting one or more men aboard.

All rumors aside, while at work I occasionally have to help people, and so this post has taken a while to create. Its currently (4:58 pm Central) the 8th inning with the Cubs up by 1 run (5-4)... I'm gonna post now, but check back later in a few hours because I will append a second post to this one discussing the game, and hopefully a little chart I've been working on about run consistency.

Check that, I got busy and will try to post again tommorrow. (11:55 PM)

Posted by Byron at July 21, 2004 2:47 PM | Bookmark and Share | BallHype: hype it up!
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