"At the end of the day, boys, you don't tell me how rough the water is, you bring in the ship." – Steve Stone
A Goat Riders Affiliate
Go Cubs!

Wrigley Rooftop Directory
Ryne Sandberg Fan Page
The Cubdom Photo Gallery
The Cubs Prayer
Cubs Calendar
Jim Hendry Page
Cubs Ownership History
Baseball Business Essays
TheCubdom Hall of Cubs

Recent Blog Updates

Editor's Pick:

Goat Riders of the Apocalypse
Bleed Cubbie Blue
Desipio Media Ventures
Hire Jim Essian!
Cub Reporter
Ivy Chat
Cub Town
Ghost of Paul Noce
The Cubdom
Thunder Matt's Saloon
View From the Bleachers
WGN-TV Baseball Blog

Honorable Mention:

A Hundred Next Years
A League of Her Own
Agony and Ivy
Bad News Cubs
Baseball Diamond News
Boys of Spring
Bush League Times
Chicago Cubs Baseball
Chicago Cubs Blog
Chicago Cubs Online
Church of Baseball
Clark & Addison blog
College of Idiots
Cubs f/x
Cubs Hot Stove
Cubs Hub
Cubs Obsession
Five Outs to go
Gonfalon Cubs
Kosuke Fukodome
Out of Right Field
The Cubs Brickyard
The Other Fifteen
The Ted Lilly Fan Club
Temporary Bleachers


Cubbie Nation
Holy Cow Bell
Ivy Envy
Towel Drills
Turning Two
Wasting away in Wrigleyville

Soldiering On:

Die-hard Cubs Fun
Fire Dusty Baker
Northside Lounge
Peoria Northsider Report
Yarbage Cub Review

Cubs Sites:

Desipio Boards
North Side Baseball
Inside the Ivy
The Heckler
My Wrigleyville

Just Read 'em!

Baseball Analysts
Baseball Musings
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Think Factory
Hardball Times


Baseball Toaster
Most Valuable Network
SportsBlog Nation

NL Central

Brew Crew Ball MIL
Bucs Dugout PIT
Crawfish Boxes HOU
Get Up Baby STL
Honest Wagner PIT
Red Hot Mama CIN
Red Reporter CIN
Viva El Birdos STL

NL East

Amazin Avenue NYM
Citizens Blog PHI
Federal Baseball WAS
Fish Stripes FLA
The Good Phight PHI
Sabernomics ATL

NL West

6-4-2 LAD, LAA
AZ Snake Pit AZ
Dodger Thoughts LAD
Ducksnorts SD
Gas Lamp Ball SD
McCovey Chronicles SF
Only Baseball Matters SF
Purple Row COL

AL East

Batters Box TOR
Bronx Banter NYY
Camden Chat BAL
DRays Bay TB
Futility Infielder NYY
Joy of Sox BOS
Over the Monster BOS
Pinstripe Alley NYY
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog NYY

AL Central

Aaron's Baseball Blog MIN
Bless You Boys DET
Let's Go Tribe CLE
Royals Review KC
South Side Sox CHW
Sox Machine CHW
Tiger Blog DET
Twins Geek MIN

AL West

Athletics Nation OAK
Halo's Heaven LAA
Lone Star Ball TEX
Lookout Landing SEA
USS Mariner SEA


Beyond the Boxscore
Minor League Ball

Chicago Sports

Section 8 Fire
Windy City Gridiron Bears

News Sources

Sun-Times Cubs
Daily Herald Sports
Daily Southtown Sports

I feel the need for speed II

Tuesday, July 6, 2004

Rickey - Always Modest, photo by Brad Mangin

Last week, I wrote about a new statistical tool I felt would better describe the offensive production of the running man in baseball. I brought it up after reading about Rickey Henderson's 130 steal season in 1982. His OBP that year was .398 and his slugging percentage was .382, for an OPS of .780. (In 2004, that would tie him with Junior Spivey for 100th best in the major leagues. In 1982, it placed him about 77th in the league.)

The logical conclusion is this: as great as OPS may be for tracking runs/game, it isn't the definitive statistic to describe a player's contribution to the offense. Typically, speedsters don't have tons of power, but they take extra bases on thefts (and lose on base opportunities when caught.) As a result, I modified our beloved OBP, SLG, and OPS to form OBP-CS, SLG+S, and OPSS.

To Recap:

OBP: On base Percentage = (Hits + BB + HPB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SacFly).

I'll modify OBP by subtracting Caught Stealing from the numerator (the top one). If you think about it, if I get a single, and then get caught stealing, its just like getting thrown out by the catcher at first.

OBP-CS: On base Percentage adjusted for steals = (Hits + BB + HPB - CS)/(AB + BB + HBP + SacFly).

SLG: Slugging % = (Total Bases) / (At bats).

I'll adjust SLG by adding stolen bases to total bases, because if a batter gets a single and then steals second, its essentially the same as a double. This should show up in our adjusted slugging.

SLG+S: Slugging & Speed % = (TB + SB) / (AB).

OPSS: On-base plus Slugging & Speed = (OBP-CS)+(SLG+S) is just like its cousin, Onbase plus slugging, but adds my two new stats.

These new statistics should do a better job of factoring in the role of speed in a player's game. Furthermore, if a player is an excellent base stealer, they will be rewarded statistically for not racking up the Caught Stealings. On the flip side, a poor baserunner will cannibalize their OBP-CS each time they are caught stealing.

To Continue: After reading my post, Brian Hipp, of CubsNow blogging fame, created a fictious character who increased his OPSS over OPS, but was caught stealing just as frequently as he was successful, and asked me to try and show an improved correlation between OPSS and Runs/Game as opposed to OPS and R/G... so I did.

Gathering the statistics and sifting through them took a ton of time, but the results are pretty interesting.

I began by compiling the team statistics for each team over the past 10 years. In all, there were 292 seasons played between 1994 and 2003 (The D-Backs and D-Rays began play in '98). I then used those 292 data points to construct a number of linear and multiple linear regressions to see which statistics most accurately describe the runs/game a team could expect. By all measures, the OBP and SLG method currently used are highly effective... but first the results.

  • OPS alone - accounts for 89.77% of the variance in R/G
  • OPSS alone - 90.51%
  • OBP and SLG in a multiple regression - 91.34%
  • OBP-CS and SLG+S in a multiple regression - 91.96%
  • OBP, SLG, SB% - 91.83%
  • OBP-CS, SLG+S, SB% - 91.96% (results tainted)

So, the bottom line is that my new statistical invention doesn't remarkably increase the accuracy of the current method (.6% - .8%), but it does allow individual players like Rickey to be valued more accurately, and does not degrade the statistical accuracy of the OPS system.

Rickey Henderson - 1982: 130 SB, 42 CS, 75.6%
OBP: .398 + SLG: .382 --> OPS: .780
OBP-CS: .334 + SLG+S: .625 -->OPSS .959
Difference: .179!

Trust me, losing isn't lovable

Yesterday's game against the Brew Crew (our first of eleven this month) was entirely frustrating. Matt Clement allowed a solo home run to Craig Counsell in the first inning, and then no more runs for the next six innings. The bullpen was also perfect, allowing no runs, but the Cubs lost 1-0.

Ben Sheets (and Matt Clement) took advantage of the weird sun conditions for a mid-day game at Miller Park. The two pitchers, and the bullpens racked up 28 strike outs in 8.5 innings (51 outs) of baseball game. Yes, the two teams were the Brewers and Cubs... occasionally known for the K, but still.

Anyhow, despite not having his best command (six walks in seven innings) Clement and the bullpen allowed only one run. Yet, the Cubs offense failed to notch a run for the eighth time this season. Memo to Offense: No matter how well your pitching staff pitches, it is impossible to win a game without scoring... come on!

Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Holy Cow!

Get Out the Brooms! Oops, I forgot, Carlos Lee still gets an at-bat, and you know what that means in a cross-town series. Boom... stop running the broom-relay race out on Waveland... Ok, start running again, the White Sox just pulled a Cubs and walked in the winning run!

Na Na Na Na, Na Na Na Na, Hey Hey Hey, Goodbye...:^) !

Posted by Byron at July 6, 2004 1:29 PM | Bookmark and Share | BallHype: hype it up!
Subscribe to The Cubdom - get emails with the latest Cubs info and pictures

This post has been tagged:

AddThis Feed Button

Get The Cubdom email updates



eXTReMe Tracker
Since Mar 18, 2004

Recent Entries

Monthly Archives

Cubs Sale Articles

© 2004 – 2015 Byron Clarke
legal - about thecubdom.com - site index