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Lineup Analysis

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

The Cubs are playing the Reds as I post this. I'm at work and have the gameday up on one screen while blogging on the second. Although I had to be here to babysit the lab at 2:00, I did get to see the first inning on ESPN and what I saw was typical of the Cubs season. They get two outs, load the bases, and then an out, scoring 0 runs. Now, the Cubs have done this two outs bases loaded bit (sometimes even scoring runs) numberous times this year... and I have also been saying that the Cubs need a #2 hitter... so here are the Cubs stats so far this year, broken down by batting order position.

Splits as of July 20th, from ESPN.com Cubs Splits.

Keying on two statistics (OBP and SLG), we see the Cubs failure to get sufficient production from the #2 (and #3) spot. With an OBP of .305 in the second hole, the Cubs are tacking on an extra out right before bringing up their power hitters.

Lineup Suggestion: Our current lineup has really been struggling to put up some runs, so I'll suggest this lineup.

#1: Todd Walker .363 - OBP in the leadoff over Grudz' .309
#2: C. Pat .334 OBP - speed at the top is nice
#3: D. Lee .371 OBP, .535 SLG - sorry Sammy... best hitter hits #3.
#4: Aramis Ramirez .371 OBP, .551 SLG - umm I mean best hitter hits #4.
#5: Moises Alou .339 OBP, .527 SLG - Mr. Clutch will have more men on
#6: Sammy Sosa .356 OBP, .538 SLG - With baserunners comes more fastballs
#7: Michael Barrett .342 OBP, .493 SLG - will see those RBI climb
#8: Alex Gonzalez .252 OBP, .390 SLG - strikes out too much for #8, oh well.
#9: Starting Pitchers

I don't want to ramble on and on about the lineup, I typically leave that up to Dusty, but I do want to point out some probabilities.

The probability of three batters with OBP of .336, .305, and .314, (the current performance levels) getting out in order is: 31.66%, and the probability of getting them all on base safely is 3.22%.

However, if the batters' OBP are .363, .334, and .371 (the suggested lineup) the probability of all three getting out in order falls 5% to 26.68% and the probability of getting all three on base is 4.50%.

Consequently, the first lineup has a 68.34% chance of getting at least one man on base while the second lineup has a 73.32% chance of getting one or more men aboard.

All rumors aside, while at work I occasionally have to help people, and so this post has taken a while to create. Its currently (4:58 pm Central) the 8th inning with the Cubs up by 1 run (5-4)... I'm gonna post now, but check back later in a few hours because I will append a second post to this one discussing the game, and hopefully a little chart I've been working on about run consistency.

Check that, I got busy and will try to post again tommorrow. (11:55 PM)

Posted by Byron at July 21, 2004 2:47 PM | | |

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