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What the Cubs (don't?) need

Monday, July 19, 2004

Trade Rumors abound... Randy, or Nomar... or Orlando Cabrera... or huh? What do we need? Lets look at some numbers

CUBS HOMERS 2003

Total: 172
Solo: 87 - 50.6%
2-run: 59 - 34.3%
3-run: 25 - 14.5%
Grand Slams: 1 - 1.2%
Runs driven in via the HR: 284
Runs/HR: 1.65

CUBS HOMERS 2004 through July 18, 2004

Total: 117 (on pace for 208, increase of 21% over 2003)
Solo: 77 - 65.8%
2-run: 27 - 23.1%
3-run: 11 - 9.4%
Grand Slams: 2 - 1.7%
Runs driven in via the HR: 172 (on pace for 306, increase of 7.7%)
Runs/HR: 1.47

Summation: Despite an increase of just over 21% in the number of home runs hit by the 2004 Cubs, they are only realizing a 7.7% increase in runs scored.

Possible Conclusions: The 2004 Cubs are hitting a substantial number of back to back home runs, or home runs very soon after another player has just hit a home run.

OR

The 2004 Cubs are not getting as many men on base, so when a home run is hit, those men are not being driven in.

So which is it?

2003 Cubs OBP: .323
2004 Cubs OBP: .326

Wow! I sure didn't think that was gonna be the case. Well, the conclusion then has to be the first one. The Cubs added home run pop is driving in the same runners that would otherwise have been knocked in...

Still, my gut and memory tells me that the Cubs offensive woes are a result of not having a good 1, 2 combination at the top of the order... a "daily double" so to speak.

OK, one more shot at vindication. Aramis and Kenny Lofton came over on July 22nd, 2003. So, lets check the press notes from July 23rd last year.

Cubs Homers - Total: 101, Solo: 55, 2-run: 29, 3-run: 16, Grand Slams: 1

Well sorta, after Kenny Lofton was acquired to get on base the Cubs solo HR percentage dropped about 5% and the 2-run home run percentage increased by 5%. A change over the rest of the 2004 season would result in about an estimated extra 5 or 6 runs...

Final Conclusion: Although I would prefer a high OBP #1 or #2 hitter, the statistics say Randy Johnson would be a better pickup.

Wait A Minute You Say: Not all runs are scored on the home run you say? Yeah, you are right, but... some interesting tid-bits I ran across in researching this post...

Chicago Cubs offensive runs/game pre July 23rd, 2003 (a.k.a. Pre- Aramis and Kenny) 4.58 Runs per game. Post 7/23/03 - 4.30 Runs per Game.

2003 Cubs Pitching pre July 23: 4.418 Runs Per Game and 3.90 RPG July 23 and beyond.

The Cubs dropped the last game of the Brewers series, which I didn't see... Woody pitched well, but the bullpen blew it in a 4-2 loss to the Brewers.

Posted by Byron at July 19, 2004 7:04 PM | |

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